Happy Father’s Day!
My Dad flew up from Miami to hang out with my wife and me and the kids “down the shore” in beautiful Avalon, New Jersey.
It’s a great place. Clean, quiet, good eats, nice people, kid-friendly.
What more do you want?
If you’re new to my work, it’s important for you to know that my Dad is one of my favorite contrarian indicators.
He’s smart, educated, and understands a lot about how the world works.
But he’s not a technical analyst.
He hasn’t spent multiple decades figuring out how markets work. He’s just a normal dude.
He called me Sunday night, January 21, 2024, to ask me if the Chinese stock market was going to crash.
To be sure, I did not know at the time that my Father even knew that China had a stock market, let alone was concerned about its direction.
That week, the Chinese stock market bottomed.
It’s up more than 70% since, outperforming the United States for 2024 and now once again this year.
My Dad is a smart guy. He knows just enough about the stock market to be dangerous.
But he follows the news instead of price, as many investors tend to do.
So, when he speaks, I listen. Because I understand that everybody’s wrong…
Even Dad.
Earlier this week, he asked me about tariffs and how it could be a problem for stocks.
I told him how thrilled I was to hear that’s what people actually believe.
The stock market has been on a tear in 2025, especially the countries that theoretically are most impacted by said tariffs.
I told him earlier in the year that we want to be buying stocks because everybody’s wrong.
He said it didn’t make any sense and that it made him more confused than ever.
Good.
But, to be clear, it’s not just Dad who’s wrong. It’s not just everyday investors who are wrong.
It’s the professionals, too, the investors who actually move markets.
This chart comes from my pal Macro Charts:
It shows the disparity between the performance of the S&P 500 and the positioning among asset managers and hedge funds.
Stocks are going up. But the institutions aren’t positioned like they should be.
Professional investors also apparently believe tariffs and other scary things are going to prevent the stock market from going up.
It’s a great visualization of exactly what’s going on in the market.
Everybody’s wrong – my Dad AND the institutions.
Good.
We’re happy to be on the other side, buying stocks and benefitting from this bullish unwind in mispositioning.
[Mailbag]
This Week in Everybody’s Wrong
On Monday, I made a Venn Diagram based on a quote from my friend Ari Wald.
Right now, what’s happening in the market is overlapping with our expectations.
Here’s how our best ideas turn into massive profits.
On Tuesday, we welcomed my good friend Sean McLaughlin to the TrendLabs conversation.
Sean is a source of wisdom about markets, trading, and life.
Here’s why and how we live the 25 Delta Lifestyle.
On Wednesday, I asked if you’d ever seen a relative rotation graph, an innovation of
My Dutch biker/technician friend Julius de Kempenaer invented RRGs.
Here’s why you’ll never look at precious metals the same way again.
On Thursday, we talked about a major rotation in the cryptocurrency market.
“Altseason” is underway, Ethereum to $1 trillion is happening, and crypto is now a risk-on bellwether.
Here’s what the end of Bitcoin Dominance means for all kinds of assets.
On Friday, we broke down the long-term trend supporting commodity prices generally, energy and crude oil prices specifically.
Yes, things are happening in the Middle East, none of them good, but we need to understand what’s actually happening.
Here’s why Black Gold is next to move in the Commodity Supercycle.
On Saturday, Senior Analyst Jason Perz assessed the conflict between Israel and Iran and its potential impact on commodities and energy.
I hate geopolitics. But it is part of our reality.
Have a great Sunday.
I’ll see you Monday morning…
Stay sharp,
JC Parets, CMT
Founder, TrendLabs